Modelling Out-Migration Rates in England and Wales: Global and Local Models of Males aged 30-44

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Last Updated: 15-02-2016 2:43

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In this paper the spatial and temporal patterns of the local parameter estimates of out-migration models in England and Wales for males aged 30 – 44 years old are examined. The data are available from the National Health Service Central Register and relate to the 98 Family Health Service Areas in England and Wales. Using 12 migration determinants, models of out-migration rates were calibrated for 14 annual time periods (1984 to 1997). Both global and local models were calibrated. The latter allow the spatial distribution of the local parameter estimates to be mapped so that both spatial and temporal variations in the determinants of out-migration rates can be examined. The global models were calibrated using standard linear regression techniques; the local models were calibrated by Geographically Weighted Regression using the GWR 2.0 software.

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